Thursday, May 22, 2008

Clinton Will Use Rules To Keep Nomination Fight Going All The Way To Convention

Air America's and MSNBC's Rachel Maddow is sounding an alarm for Democrats to pay attention and not get lauded into thinking that Hillary Clinton doesn't really mean what she says. Namely that "I'm in to win." Apparently even if it means destroying the Democratic Party and it's chance of winning the Presidency in November.

Maddow makes the argument that Clinton, although she has been more or less written off by the main stream media as not having a mathematical chance for the nomination, continues on. The last few days Clinton has stepped up her arguments for the inclusion of the Florida and Michigan vote results in the overall equation of how many votes and delegates it will takes to be the Democratic Party's nominee. The "every vote must be counted" rhetoric now the main theme being pumped out from the Clinton campaign even though Hillary previously agreed to exclude the Florida and Michigan votes as punishment to those state parties for moving the date of their primary ahead.

To the Clintons, if the shoe fits wear it.

Maddow argues that the key date that everyone should focus on is May 31 when the Democratic Party rules committee will meet and deal with the issue of including the Michigan and Florida delegations. She reports that what Hillary is hoping for is a deadlock on the issue so that it must be resolve in Denver as called for in the Party rules. Because of the rules committee makeup it is certainly plausible that it could be deadlocked. There are 28 members of the rules committee. Clinton supporters make up a third, according to a Huffington Post analysis of the allegiances. Eight are for Obama and the rest have not publicly declared.

Leaving the matter of seating the delegates open till August for resolution before the convention rules committee or in a Denver floor fight gives Hillary the excuse to continue her campaign. Acting as the champion of protecting the rights of the disenfranchised voters. Which is a hot button issue with most Democrats. It also adds to the the "I'm a fighter and not a quitter" image that Hillary has been echoing lately.

Maddow's main worry is that history has shown that when a party waits to resolve the issue of the nomination at the convention it usually loses the election. It would also give John McCain a free ride until August, when the final match ups would be determined. Apparently something Clinton is willing to risk if it means she can somehow steal the nomination with this type of a strategy. She would have three more months to beat up on Obama in hopes of weaken him even more than she has already while continuing her attempts to convince super-delegates of her being more electable then Obama. She also holds out hope that by that time he will have been hit by a meteor or a scandal.

She would be the last woman standing. Even if the plan would weaken her chances of actually winning this year there would be another chance in 2012 instead of having to wait till 2016 when her age may become a factor.

Maddow is calling on uncommitted super-delegates to declare for Obama in sufficient numbers, I believe it is about 60, before May 31 so that Obama would in fact have enough delegates to claim the nomination mathematically even if the outlaw delegations are included. Obama could concede the issue of seating the delegations at the rules committee meeting allowing the outlaws to be seated per the actual election results.

Clinton would have no further issue to make trouble about or legitimize her continued fight for the nomination. Having seen the handwriting on the wall she would hopefully go away and start to work for party unity and what legacy she could have left.


  1. I think the supers will let the rules committee decide, let Puerto Rico vote, then from Monday to Thursday, they'll come in fast and strong for Obama. Ten days from now, the whole thing will be over.

    Btw, nice call you made, there.

  2. Kevin,
    I didn't realize the predictions in the post from March 07 would be that close to what actually transpired.I just reviewed it. Thanks for pointing it out.

    I'm sure that Clinton figured it be over by February 5th per the general scenario of the front loaded 2008 primary season. Something her people played a big part in setting up in the first place thinking it be a slam dunk.

    We all now know it didn't work so well for her and she didn't really have a plan for the caucus states or what to do after February 5th if she hadn't nailed down the nomination.

    So now her new strategy is blaming the supposedly sexist media and others for her campaign's and her failures.